Solar Wafer Price Outlook Turns Pessimistic, Global Flows Shift with Evolving Trade Policies

The uncertainty of solar wafer prices and shifting trade policies is disrupting procurement plans, creating margin pressure and delayed projects.

Global solar wafer prices are showing signs of decline, driven by demand fluctuations and evolving trade dynamics, particularly between China, Southeast Asia, and the U.S. These shifts are reshaping international supply chains, with long-term implications for solar component exporters and system integrators alike.

To navigate the new reality, let’s dive deeper into what’s changing and how you can stay ahead.

Why Are Solar Wafer Prices Dropping, and What Does It Mean for Buyers?

Solar wafer prices, especially for N-type products, have started to fall due to softening demand in China and persistent overcapacity. This week, FOB China prices for N-type M10 wafers dropped by 0.63% to $0.157 per piece, while G12 wafers saw a 1.49% decrease to $0.199. The anticipated end of China’s peak installation period in May and June has eased domestic demand, allowing surplus capacity to spill into the global market.

For buyers, this volatility adds procurement risk. Bulk orders may quickly devalue, and suppliers with weak inventory planning can cause delivery delays.

How Are Evolving Trade Policies Impacting Global PV Flows?

U.S. trade policy is shifting fast. A three-month suspension of reciprocal tariffs (excluding China) allows exporters in countries like Laos and Indonesia to face only a 10% tariff on solar cells and modules. This creates a short-term incentive for Southeast Asian wafer and cell exporters to push volume quickly to the U.S.

This opens both opportunities and risks: while more supply may enter North America, the bottleneck in U.S. domestic cell production ensures that demand for imported cells and modules—especially from compliant partners—is here to stay.

Where Are New Growth Markets for Solar Wafers and Related Components?

With the U.S. becoming more selective, manufacturers and traders are eyeing alternative growth markets. Regions such as Egypt, India, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia—where solar industrialization is either underway or emerging—are now key destinations for solar wafer exports. Their favorable tariffs and rising clean energy demand make them strategic targets.

USFULL’s solar pumping inverter and protection series, including SPDs and DC circuit breakers, are already seeing increased interest from African and Middle Eastern EPCs. Our customers benefit not only from our customizable products but also from localized support and project guidance.

What Are the Supply Chain Risks with Overcapacity and Production Shifts?

The forecast for April’s wafer output in China has been revised upward from 57GW to 61GW, despite disruptions like the Myanmar earthquake. This reflects how oversupply can absorb short-term shocks, but also hints at deeper volatility. If you rely on unverified suppliers, these capacity shifts may lead to stockouts, missed sales seasons, and false certification risks.

How Can Buyers Choose the Right Partner Amid Price Uncertainty?

In a market where price wars often lead to quality compromises, it’s vital to balance cost with long-term reliability. Moussa, a 27-year-old solar buyer from Egypt, once missed a project deadline due to a late shipment from an uncertified supplier. Now, with USFULL, he enjoys on-time delivery, flexible payment options, and access to solar accessories that match his exact needs—from DC fuses to fully branded inverters.

Whether sourcing from China or Southeast Asia, ensure your supplier offers real-time market insights, transparent documentation, and reliable after-sales service—just like we do at USFULL.

Solar prices are changing, but your business doesn’t have to suffer—stay informed and partner wisely.